On December 14th, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council issued the Outline of the Strategic Plan for Expanding Domestic Demand (2022-2035) (hereinafter referred to as "Outline"), firmly implementing the strategy of expanding domestic demand and cultivating a complete domestic demand system, which is an inevitable choice to accelerate the construction of a new development pattern with the domestic big cycle as the main body and the domestic and international double cycles promoting each other, and a strategic decision to promote China’s long-term development and long-term stability.
In terms of continuously upgrading traditional consumption, the Outline proposes to promote the healthy development of residential consumption. Adhere to the positioning of "houses are used for living, not for speculation", strengthen the guidance of real estate market expectations, explore new development models, accelerate the establishment of a housing system with multi-subject supply, multi-channel guarantee and simultaneous rent and purchase, and steadily implement a long-term mechanism for the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, support residents’ reasonable demand for self-occupation, curb speculative demand for investment, and stabilize land prices, prices and expectations. We will improve the basic system of housing security and support policies, focus on big cities with net population inflow, and expand the supply of affordable rental housing. Develop shared property housing according to local conditions. Improve the long-term rental policy, and gradually make the rental housing have the same rights in enjoying public services. Improve the housing provident fund system. Promote the construction of barrier-free facilities, promote the consumption of home decoration, increase the consumption of smart home appliances, and promote the development of digital homes.
Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of Yiju Research Institute, pointed out that the outline of expanding domestic demand issued by the central government fully reflects the great attention paid to domestic demand or consumption in the post-epidemic era. At the same time, expanding domestic demand also requires the active participation of real estate.
Ma Hong, a senior researcher at Zhixin Investment Research Institute, pointed out that the definition of real estate in the Outline is consistent with Report to the 20th CPC National Congress’s formulation. In the long run, we should adhere to the definition that houses are used for living, not for speculation, and accelerate the establishment and improvement of a housing system with multi-agent supply, multi-channel guarantee and simultaneous rent and purchase. Although the short-term operation of the real estate market has encountered many difficulties, with the development of new urbanization, there is still great room for development of the domestic real estate market in the future.
"The promotion of domestic demand in real estate should be based on ‘ One orientation and one system ’ Under the big framework, that is, to live in the house without speculation, rent and purchase simultaneously under the system to promote. Only in this way can the support for housing or residential consumption be sustainable and prevent the deviation of direction. " Yan Yuejin added.
"Living in a house without speculation" is the long-standing industry orientation of real estate.
The "Outline" proposes to adhere to the positioning that "houses are used for living, not for speculation", strengthen the expected guidance of the real estate market, and explore new development models.
Chen Wenjing, director of market research in the Index Division of the Central Finger Research Institute, pointed out that "housing without speculation" is a long-term industry orientation of real estate, and only by adhering to "housing without speculation" can we truly promote the healthy development of the housing consumer market.
The "Outline" clearly supports residents’ reasonable demand for self-occupation, curbs speculative demand for investment, and stabilizes land prices, housing prices and expectations.
Chen Wenjing pointed out that in order to support reasonable self-occupation demand and curb investment speculation demand, in the process of optimizing the property market policy in the future, the support policy for the just-needed and improved housing demand is expected to be further improved, while the restrictive policy for investment speculation demand may be more refined. At the same time, emphasizing "strengthening the expected guidance of the real estate market", the current real estate market expectation is still unstable, and the market confidence at both ends of supply and demand is insufficient. Strengthening the expected guidance may be more conducive to the restoration of market sentiment.
Ma Hong believes that the "reasonable and independent needs of residents" mentioned in the Outline are rigid and improved needs, and these two parts of housing demand will be the main service targets of housing policy in the future. On the one hand, the floating population and the natural growth of the new population in the city will become the main sources just needed; On the other hand, the demand for improved housing has gradually become the demand of the people for a better life.
"Bring up ‘ Sanwen ’ The target means that the trend of the real estate market stabilizing and rebounding in the next six months is more clear, but the situation of rising house prices will still not appear. It is expected that cities of different levels will stabilize and rebound. " Zhang Bo, dean of the branch of 58 Anjuke Real Estate Research Institute, said.
The direction of the housing system of rent and purchase remains unchanged.
The "Outline" proposes to speed up the establishment of a housing system with multi-agent supply, multi-channel guarantee and simultaneous rent and purchase, and steadily implement a long-term mechanism for the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. At the same time, in accordance with the "Planning Outline", we will improve the basic system of housing security and support policies, and focus on large cities with net population inflows to expand the supply of affordable rental housing. Improve the long-term rental policy, and gradually make the rental housing have the same rights in enjoying public services.
The "Outline" once again clarifies "accelerating the establishment of a housing system with multi-agent supply, multi-channel guarantee and simultaneous rent and purchase", which is consistent with the relevant formulation in Report to the 20th CPC National Congress.
Chen Wenjing pointed out that in recent years, the supporting policies for the rental market have been followed up in all directions, and it is expected to be further improved in the future. In particular, the supporting policies and resources for affordable rental housing are expected to be better implemented, and the related policies for renting, purchasing and purchasing long-term rental houses are also expected to be substantially implemented.
Zhang Bo believes that affordable housing is an important measure to solve the housing problem of new citizens, and clearly proposes to focus on big cities with net population inflow and expand the supply of affordable rental housing. From the perspective of security means, shared property rights and guaranteed rental housing are two powerful starting points. In recent years, the supply of guaranteed rental housing has increased significantly. In addition, the way of multi-channel co-construction since this year, including the conversion of pilot commercial housing in some cities to guaranteed rental housing, has greatly increased the number of guaranteed rental housing, effectively guaranteed the housing needs of new citizens, and is the basis for promoting the equalization of public services.
Ma Hong pointed out that at the end of 2015, the Central Economic Work Conference first proposed the development of the housing rental market; At the end of 2020, the Central Economic Work Conference clearly stated that it was necessary to "solve the outstanding housing problems in big cities"; The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development once said that during the Tenth Five-Year Plan period, 40 key cities across the country plan to raise 6.5 million sets (rooms) of affordable rental housing, which is expected to solve the housing difficulties of nearly 20 million new citizens and young people. Undoubtedly, affordable rental housing has become an important starting point to protect residents’ housing needs, and the corresponding housing financial supporting services are also following up.
The central bank made it clear that affordable housing rental loans were not included in the evaluation index of loan concentration of commercial banks. In 2022, the first batch of three affordable housing REITs were also listed on the exchange, which indicated that the "investment, financing and retirement" involved in affordable housing projects formed a closed loop, providing effective financial tool support for affordable housing rental. In the past few years, land projects in some cities have also increased the proportion of affordable housing construction. In the future, new urbanization will promote regional housing demand, housing supply will also provide more diversified choices, and the proportion of rental housing will be expected to rise to better match and meet the housing needs of residents.
Improve the housing provident fund system, give play to the functions of housing security and improving people’s livelihood.
The Outline proposes to improve the housing provident fund system.
Chen Wenjing pointed out that the housing provident fund system is an important part of China’s policy housing financial system. In the past, the housing provident fund system played an important role in the rapid development of the real estate industry. However, with the continuous development of the industry, there are also many problems to be solved urgently in the operation of the provident fund, such as the low efficiency of the use of provident fund in some areas, the failure to fully play the functions of mutual assistance and inclusiveness of provident fund funds, the imperfect supervision system of housing provident fund and the limited sources of funds. A sound provident fund system in the future will be more conducive to giving play to its housing security and improving people’s livelihood.
In addition, the Outline also proposes to promote the construction of barrier-free facilities, promote the consumption of home decoration, increase the consumption of smart home appliances, and promote the development of digital homes.
"In combination with the increasing aging trend in China and the needs of young people, the outline also actively promotes the construction of barrier-free facilities to ensure the living safety of more elderly people. At the same time, combined with the digital construction and the continuous upgrading of intelligence, the consumption of smart home appliances and the development of digital home are also one of the key points. This direction is expected to continue to advance in the future, and at the same time, combined with the development of science and technology and changes in the needs of the population, it will continue to improve and refine. " Zhang Bo said.
Li Yujia, chief researcher of the Housing Policy Research Center of Guangdong Provincial Urban Planning Institute, said that this strategy once again emphasized the potential demand, creating a housing security system with low cost and low threshold for renting and buying, and lowering the threshold and cost of consumption, so as to release the potential of consumption and turn it into capacity. In addition, it also emphasizes the consumption of stock houses, such as accessibility, decoration and intelligence, which adapts to the aging era, the upgrading of residents’ stock houses and the new needs of young people who have entered the property market. Generally speaking, as for the content of housing consumption, the basic role of consumption has been implemented, the supply-side reform has been emphasized, and the implementation of the strategy of expanding domestic demand has been organically combined with deepening the supply-side structural reform.
