On August 8, the Japanese government approved the export of one of the related materials for the first time 35 days after it started to strengthen the export control of three kinds of semiconductor materials exported to South Korea on July 4. After the review, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry of Japan decided that there was no risk of these goods being used for military equipment, so it only took one month to approve the application, which was earlier than the standard 90-day review period. In response, the South Korean government also postponed kicking Japan out of the list of white countries.
In the past more than a month, the tense Japan-ROK relations have been escalating and fermenting. Japan has no intention of retreating step by step, but it has slowed down slightly at this time. In this regard, Li Jiacheng, an associate professor at the School of International Studies of Liaoning University, analyzed The Paper’s case, saying that Japan’s move is to prove its innocence, to show the international community that exports to South Korea are restrictive measures rather than embargoes, to seize the commanding heights of international public opinion, and to show South Korea its control over the trade flow and flow between Japan and South Korea. The collection and release of its export restrictions depends on South Korea’s policy toward Japan.
Japan controls the "faucet switch"
Japan’s Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry, Shigeng Hongcheng, announced on the 8th that he approved the export of one of the related materials, but also warned South Korea that if three high-tech materials are found to be improperly used, we will take comprehensive measures to prevent such situations from happening again, including expanding the application review. The Central Daily News quoted foreign media as saying that Japan issued a warning after it announced its exports, which showed that Japan was unwilling to unilaterally stop exporting to South Korea while increasing its bets in this diplomacy.
The Japan Broadcasting Association (NHK) reported that various media in South Korea made a lot of reports on the front page of the 9th that the Japanese government allowed some enterprises to export to South Korea for the first time. NHK said that South Korean media accused Japan of adopting "faucet tactics" to deal with South Korea, and also pointed out that Japan was "adjusting export control according to international public opinion and anti-Japanese public opinion in South Korea".
According to the Central Daily News, industry and experts analyzed that Japan approved the export of related materials for two reasons. The first is to consider the actual interests of Japanese companies to make choices. The report quoted people in the semiconductor industry as saying, "Japanese companies have also appealed to their own governments that it is not easy to export except to Korean companies, and the Japanese government has begun to realize the seriousness of the situation." On the other hand, Japan’s strategy is like turning on and off a tap at will, and it decides to relax or tighten export restrictions according to international public opinion and domestic reaction in South Korea.
Li Jiacheng believes that the anti-Japanese public opinion in South Korea is getting worse and worse, and Japan does not want to make Japan-South Korea relations out of control and irreparable. The approval of the export of some materials this time is a measure to ease the pressure; Moreover, if Korean companies find alternatives, the effect of Japan’s restrictions on Korea will not be as obvious as previously expected.
"East Asia Daily" said that on the one hand, Japan emphasized that export control measures to South Korea were not embargo measures, on the other hand, it hinted that it would strengthen export control according to the situation, which showed Japan’s "two-faced tactics" against South Korea and "showed Japan’s containment and manipulation of the rope of Japan-South Korea relations."
While the South Korean media reported extensively on the dispute between Japan and South Korea and accused the Japanese side, the Japanese media did not show weakness. Japan’s Sankei Shimbun reported on the 9th that authoritative research institutions in the United States pointed out that the responsibility for the confrontation between Moon Jae in and South Korea lies with the Japanese government.
According to the report, the Heritage Foundation, a famous American research institution, held a discussion on the "Japan-South Korea trade dispute" in Washington on the 7th. Snyder, director of the US-South Korea policy plan of the American think tank Foreign Relations Association (CFR), believes that Moon Jae in, as the president of South Korea, should balance domestic politics and foreign policy, but he put the issue of comfort women at the forefront of Japan-South Korea relations, so as to consolidate his political position in South Korea, which leads to a dilemma now; Moon Jae in’s inaction on the issue of labor expropriation is also a reason for the opposition between Japan and South Korea.
South Korea suspended the "white list" agenda and launched the anti-Japanese "Depth Charge"
The South Korean side made an intriguing response to the "faucet switch" that Japan unscrewed on the 8th. On the one hand, South Korea postponed the agenda of kicking Japan out of the white list of South Korean exports. On the other hand, Moon Jae in reshuffled its cabinet on the 9th, bringing in authoritative experts in the semiconductor field and well-known hardliners against Japan.
According to a report by the Central Daily News on the 9th, the South Korean government originally planned to propose the Amendment to the Announcement on Import and Export of Strategic Materials, which removed Japan from the list of white countries, on August 8th, but the government held a ministerial meeting on Japan’s export regulation correspondence on the same day. The Ministry of Industry, Trade and Resources of the Republic of Korea stated that "as a result of discussing the export system of strategic materials, it was decided to determine the specific content and promotion schedule in the future", which was interpreted as the adjustment made by the ROK to the Japanese reaction.
While temporarily kicking Japan out of the white list, South Korea also decided to greatly strengthen the detection of radioactive energy and heavy metals in the import of daily coal ash. This can be seen as South Korea refraining from expanding its economic war with Japan on the one hand, and taking out "restricted chips" on Japanese imports on the other.
Li Jiacheng believes that this is because South Korea wants to cool down and deal with trade disputes, and fight a trade war with Japan, the third largest economy, but South Korea still lacks confidence. "In short, can’t afford to play. I had to fight before, but now there is an exit, so I will cool it down, "Li Jiacheng said.
On the 9th, Moon Jae in nominated 10 South Korean ministerial officials and reshuffled the cabinet. According to Yonhap News Agency, Moon Jae in nominated Cao Guo, former chief secretary of Cheongwadae’s civil affairs, as the Minister of Justice, Cui Qirong, a professor of electronic information engineering at Seoul National University, as the Minister of Science, Technology, Information and Communication, and Li Xiuhe, a member of the Common Democratic Party, as the South Korean ambassador to the United States.
Moon Jae in also nominated Minister of Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry and Food, Chairman of the Fair Trade Commission and Chairman of the Finance Committee. This is the second time that the Moon Jae in government reshuffled its cabinet after replacing the heads of seven departments, including the Small and Medium-sized Venture Enterprise Department, on March 8.
Although Moon Jae in’s move is for next year’s parliamentary elections, it cannot be considered that it has nothing to do with the current friction between Japan and South Korea.
SankeiBiz, an economic information website under the Japanese Sankei Shimbun, pointed out that Moon Jae in once commented that Cui Qirong has "worldwide authority in the semiconductor field, and he has made great contributions to promoting Korean semiconductor memory to become the first in the world". Moon Jae in’s promotion of Cui Qirong may be regarded as one of the countermeasures to strengthen Japanese export control to South Korea. Li Xiuhe, the new ambassador to the United States, was the chief representative of the six-party talks on the Korean nuclear issue.
Among these ten people, it is particularly noteworthy that the new Minister of Justice Cao Guo. Moon Jae in’s nomination of Cao Guo, a confidant and former chief secretary of Cheongwadae civil affairs, as the Minister of Justice is regarded as the biggest highlight of this cabinet reshuffle, which Yonhap News Agency said shows Moon Jae in’s determination to speed up the reform of procuratorial organs.
The Asahi Shimbun pointed out that Cao Guo was famous as "Depth Charge who criticized Japan". After Japan took measures to strengthen export control against South Korea, Cao Guo wrote in Japanese in his personal social media face book "insulting South Korea’s sovereignty and damaging free trade". Regarding the issue of labor expropriation in World War II, he posted on social media that "those who deny, accuse and distort the facts should be called pro-Japanese (meaning traitors in Korean context)".
Under the dilemma, there are different opinions in Korean political circles and public opinion has changed.
A commentary in the South China Morning Post on the 7th pointed out that the Moon Jae in administration’s active efforts to improve relations with North Korea have weakened the US-South Korea alliance. North Korea’s recent missile tests have made Moon Jae in’s idea of developing a "peaceful economy" with North Korea to deal with the dispute between Japan and South Korea hopeless. The U.S. Defense Secretary’s proposal to deploy medium-range missiles in Asia may further put South Korea in a security dilemma. There are also differences in South Korean political circles on how to break through the predicament. Conservatives advocate easing Japan to restore the trilateral relations between the United States, Japan and South Korea on the basis of the United States, South Korea and the United States-Japan alliance, while progressives emphasize the need to win the "battle" with Japan.
At a time when political circles have not yet reached a consensus, Korean public opinion seems to have undergone subtle changes. Japan’s "West Japan News" reported this detail change. For example, there are more and more calls for "anti-Abe instead of anti-Japan" in Korean media or social media. Banners such as "NO Boycott Japan" that appeared in a large number on the streets of Japan have attracted many criticisms in South Korea, saying that "Japanese tourists are not enemies" and demanding that banners be removed to calmly handle Japan-ROK relations.
The Korean media also presented the idea that "government communication should be distinguished from civil opposition". The Korean National Daily introduced the voice of a representative of a Korean citizen group, who said that "conscientious Japanese citizens who oppose Abe’s regime should unite to play a role in Japan". Another male employee in Seoul said, "After stopping business exchanges with South Korea, I saw the disappointment of the local government in Japan with the Japanese government." He said that political and non-governmental exchanges should be separated.
According to NHK, the results of a survey of 1,000 people conducted by the Korean poll "Gallup Korea" show that as of August 8, 54% of the people in South Korea answered "doing well" and 35% answered "doing wrong". In response to the question "Which side is more affected by Japanese and Korean enterprises", 57% answered "Korean enterprises" and 22% answered "Japanese enterprises".
A commentary in the Central Daily News on August 5 pointed out that Korean nationals will naturally be angry with Japan’s actions. The government should also respect the feelings of the people, but if it deliberately incites anti-Japanese sentiment or acts in an extreme way, it will not benefit the country. The more this time, the more calm we must be. Korea and Japan are "close neighbors" who can’t live without each other. Even if conflicts occasionally break out, the government must formulate corresponding countermeasures for the long-term plan.
At the end of this month, it is expected that Japan will take the second round of measures to strengthen export management to South Korea, and Japanese raw material enterprises are also accelerating to take countermeasures. For example, Morita Chemical Industry will start the production of hydrogen fluoride in China in 2019.
Li Jiacheng concluded with The Paper that he hoped Japan and South Korea would exercise restraint and handle it calmly. At present, the economic situation of South Korea and Japan is not optimistic, and the international economic environment in which the two countries are located is not good. On the one hand, they are affected by Sino-US trade frictions, and on the other hand, their domestic economic policies also have their own shortcomings. Weak growth and economic slowdown have become the norm. If the trade disputes between the two countries worsen, it will be even worse.
