作者： admin

Is it normal for the audience to watch the drama at double speed？ Is the audience too busy or the drama too watery？

Story of Yanxi Palace, with 70 episodes, can be watched by the audience in only one and a half days through "multiple play".

For the popular drama "Ruyi’s Royal Love in the Palace", the video website provides a way to watch only one actor to save the audience time.

　　Our reporter Xu Yuzhe

　　"How tight is the time for contemporary young people? You have to drive twice as fast to watch a drama. " Recently, an ordinary netizen, a seemingly casual Weibo, has won thousands of praises and comments. Indeed, "double-speed broadcasting" has now become the norm for many young audiences to catch up with domestic dramas. The so-called "double-speed playback" is a newly added function of video websites in recent years. Users can use playback software to speed up or slow down the video playback rate, generally ranging from 0.5 times to 2.0 times. In the case of "double speed", you can finish 70 episodes of the popular drama "Story of Yanxi Palace" in one and a half days.

　　According to the data of "China TV Drama Industry Report in 2018" published in April this year, in 2017, the total number of TV dramas was more than 465, and the average number of single episodes reached 39.8. Since 2011, 300 to 400 TV dramas have been broadcast every year. In the fragmentation time, it really takes a lot of time to watch so many dramas. In the social life of young people, "explosive" TV series is an important talk. In order to keep up with the rhythm of friends, many people will choose to play the brush drama at double speed during the break.

　　For many viewers who don’t want to miss a frame, it is very important to choose the double-speed playback that suits them. The experience of Galen, the audience, is that the speed of 2 times is indeed a little fast, and the speed of 1.5 times is just right. "The plot can basically be clearly presented, and the speech speed of the actors’ lines is normal." After changing the double speed, it will also make the series have the entertainment effect of "ghost animals". On bilibili, a barrage video website where many young people gather, videos of "1.5 times speed play zone" and "playing with 2 times speed is better" are often provided.

　　When it comes to double-speed playback, the attitude of many viewers is "doing it as a last resort." What annoys the audience is that some domestic dramas are often filled with a lot of flashbacks and useless dialogues in order to lengthen the number of episodes and make up the plot. "Remembrance killing" was originally a means to promote the progress of the plot, but half of an episode is remembering, and even the patient audience will choose to play it at double speed. In some love idol dramas, in order to show the emotional development of men and women, there will be a large number of slow-motion shots.

　　The sloppy script creation of some domestic dramas is staggering. According to industry insiders, it usually takes about half a year to compare 12 episodes of American TV dramas, and 50 episodes and 60 collective scripts of some big IP dramas in China can be completed in 5 months. Under the influence of the idea of "quick script" and quick success, it is normal for the audience to quickly brush through the "brainless plot" by playing at double speed.

　　On the other hand, domestic TV stations purchase TV dramas mostly by the number of episodes. For the sake of commercial interests, many TV dramas are seriously flooded. There is a long-standing "stubborn disease" that domestic dramas are prone to 60 or 70 episodes. There are basically more than 60 episodes of Chuqiao Biography, 76 episodes of Empresses in the Palace, and the fantasy of ancient costumes. Urban modern dramas also start with the lowest 40 episodes … … At this year’s annual meeting of Shanghai TV series production and broadcasting, Wang Leiqing, director of Dragon TV, spoke directly: "There are too many ‘ The dragon’s head is rotten and the snake’s waist is weak ’ It seems that a costume drama can’t be called a big drama without seventy or eighty episodes. Is there water injection in the middle? Everyone is very controversial about the long-episode TV series. The audience needs less than 50 episodes of dry dramas without water, and the market needs about 30 episodes of fast-paced innovative dramas! "

　　Domestic dramas choose water injection, so the audience chooses "wringing out". Ironically, in addition to double-speed playback, video websites have also launched other "wringing" services. For example, "just watch TA": this function assembles the scenes of several leading actors in each episode into fragments, and users can choose to watch only the parts related to an actor, which is suitable for fans. Another example is "listening to the drama": this function makes the video audio, so that users can understand the content through sound when it is inconvenient to watch, which is suitable for commuting. There is also a "key plot reminder": this function displays the highlights of each episode in the form of key points in the progress bar, and users can see the general plot by placing the mouse on the key points, so as to decide whether to stay or jump.

　　How to make more viewers stop playing at double speed is a test of the quality of film and television works. When double-speed broadcasting is becoming the choice of more and more viewers, the practitioners in the TV drama industry need to reflect deeply. In the view of critic Dai Xianren, only fine products can win the market and rich returns, and the TV drama industry can enter a virtuous circle of survival of the fittest. He also bluntly said that when the TV series really works slowly, the story is wonderful and the performance is exquisite, and the double-speed playback can’t convey the high-quality content well, the audience will play these excellent works at the original speed or even taste them repeatedly.

Japan has turned on the ＂faucet＂ and South Korea’s public opinion has changed： is Japan-South Korea relations facing an inflection point？

　　On August 8, the Japanese government approved the export of one of the related materials for the first time 35 days after it started to strengthen the export control of three kinds of semiconductor materials exported to South Korea on July 4. After the review, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry of Japan decided that there was no risk of these goods being used for military equipment, so it only took one month to approve the application, which was earlier than the standard 90-day review period. In response, the South Korean government also postponed kicking Japan out of the list of white countries.

　　In the past more than a month, the tense Japan-ROK relations have been escalating and fermenting. Japan has no intention of retreating step by step, but it has slowed down slightly at this time. In this regard, Li Jiacheng, an associate professor at the School of International Studies of Liaoning University, analyzed The Paper’s case, saying that Japan’s move is to prove its innocence, to show the international community that exports to South Korea are restrictive measures rather than embargoes, to seize the commanding heights of international public opinion, and to show South Korea its control over the trade flow and flow between Japan and South Korea. The collection and release of its export restrictions depends on South Korea’s policy toward Japan.

　　Japan controls the "faucet switch"

　　Japan’s Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry, Shigeng Hongcheng, announced on the 8th that he approved the export of one of the related materials, but also warned South Korea that if three high-tech materials are found to be improperly used, we will take comprehensive measures to prevent such situations from happening again, including expanding the application review. The Central Daily News quoted foreign media as saying that Japan issued a warning after it announced its exports, which showed that Japan was unwilling to unilaterally stop exporting to South Korea while increasing its bets in this diplomacy.

　　The Japan Broadcasting Association (NHK) reported that various media in South Korea made a lot of reports on the front page of the 9th that the Japanese government allowed some enterprises to export to South Korea for the first time. NHK said that South Korean media accused Japan of adopting "faucet tactics" to deal with South Korea, and also pointed out that Japan was "adjusting export control according to international public opinion and anti-Japanese public opinion in South Korea".

　　According to the Central Daily News, industry and experts analyzed that Japan approved the export of related materials for two reasons. The first is to consider the actual interests of Japanese companies to make choices. The report quoted people in the semiconductor industry as saying, "Japanese companies have also appealed to their own governments that it is not easy to export except to Korean companies, and the Japanese government has begun to realize the seriousness of the situation." On the other hand, Japan’s strategy is like turning on and off a tap at will, and it decides to relax or tighten export restrictions according to international public opinion and domestic reaction in South Korea.

　　Li Jiacheng believes that the anti-Japanese public opinion in South Korea is getting worse and worse, and Japan does not want to make Japan-South Korea relations out of control and irreparable. The approval of the export of some materials this time is a measure to ease the pressure; Moreover, if Korean companies find alternatives, the effect of Japan’s restrictions on Korea will not be as obvious as previously expected.

　　"East Asia Daily" said that on the one hand, Japan emphasized that export control measures to South Korea were not embargo measures, on the other hand, it hinted that it would strengthen export control according to the situation, which showed Japan’s "two-faced tactics" against South Korea and "showed Japan’s containment and manipulation of the rope of Japan-South Korea relations."

　　While the South Korean media reported extensively on the dispute between Japan and South Korea and accused the Japanese side, the Japanese media did not show weakness. Japan’s Sankei Shimbun reported on the 9th that authoritative research institutions in the United States pointed out that the responsibility for the confrontation between Moon Jae in and South Korea lies with the Japanese government.

　　According to the report, the Heritage Foundation, a famous American research institution, held a discussion on the "Japan-South Korea trade dispute" in Washington on the 7th. Snyder, director of the US-South Korea policy plan of the American think tank Foreign Relations Association (CFR), believes that Moon Jae in, as the president of South Korea, should balance domestic politics and foreign policy, but he put the issue of comfort women at the forefront of Japan-South Korea relations, so as to consolidate his political position in South Korea, which leads to a dilemma now; Moon Jae in’s inaction on the issue of labor expropriation is also a reason for the opposition between Japan and South Korea.

　　South Korea suspended the "white list" agenda and launched the anti-Japanese "Depth Charge"

　　The South Korean side made an intriguing response to the "faucet switch" that Japan unscrewed on the 8th. On the one hand, South Korea postponed the agenda of kicking Japan out of the white list of South Korean exports. On the other hand, Moon Jae in reshuffled its cabinet on the 9th, bringing in authoritative experts in the semiconductor field and well-known hardliners against Japan.

　　According to a report by the Central Daily News on the 9th, the South Korean government originally planned to propose the Amendment to the Announcement on Import and Export of Strategic Materials, which removed Japan from the list of white countries, on August 8th, but the government held a ministerial meeting on Japan’s export regulation correspondence on the same day. The Ministry of Industry, Trade and Resources of the Republic of Korea stated that "as a result of discussing the export system of strategic materials, it was decided to determine the specific content and promotion schedule in the future", which was interpreted as the adjustment made by the ROK to the Japanese reaction.

　　While temporarily kicking Japan out of the white list, South Korea also decided to greatly strengthen the detection of radioactive energy and heavy metals in the import of daily coal ash. This can be seen as South Korea refraining from expanding its economic war with Japan on the one hand, and taking out "restricted chips" on Japanese imports on the other.

　　Li Jiacheng believes that this is because South Korea wants to cool down and deal with trade disputes, and fight a trade war with Japan, the third largest economy, but South Korea still lacks confidence. "In short, can’t afford to play. I had to fight before, but now there is an exit, so I will cool it down, "Li Jiacheng said.

　　On the 9th, Moon Jae in nominated 10 South Korean ministerial officials and reshuffled the cabinet. According to Yonhap News Agency, Moon Jae in nominated Cao Guo, former chief secretary of Cheongwadae’s civil affairs, as the Minister of Justice, Cui Qirong, a professor of electronic information engineering at Seoul National University, as the Minister of Science, Technology, Information and Communication, and Li Xiuhe, a member of the Common Democratic Party, as the South Korean ambassador to the United States.

　　Moon Jae in also nominated Minister of Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry and Food, Chairman of the Fair Trade Commission and Chairman of the Finance Committee. This is the second time that the Moon Jae in government reshuffled its cabinet after replacing the heads of seven departments, including the Small and Medium-sized Venture Enterprise Department, on March 8.

　　Although Moon Jae in’s move is for next year’s parliamentary elections, it cannot be considered that it has nothing to do with the current friction between Japan and South Korea.

　　SankeiBiz, an economic information website under the Japanese Sankei Shimbun, pointed out that Moon Jae in once commented that Cui Qirong has "worldwide authority in the semiconductor field, and he has made great contributions to promoting Korean semiconductor memory to become the first in the world". Moon Jae in’s promotion of Cui Qirong may be regarded as one of the countermeasures to strengthen Japanese export control to South Korea. Li Xiuhe, the new ambassador to the United States, was the chief representative of the six-party talks on the Korean nuclear issue.

　　Among these ten people, it is particularly noteworthy that the new Minister of Justice Cao Guo. Moon Jae in’s nomination of Cao Guo, a confidant and former chief secretary of Cheongwadae civil affairs, as the Minister of Justice is regarded as the biggest highlight of this cabinet reshuffle, which Yonhap News Agency said shows Moon Jae in’s determination to speed up the reform of procuratorial organs.

　　The Asahi Shimbun pointed out that Cao Guo was famous as "Depth Charge who criticized Japan". After Japan took measures to strengthen export control against South Korea, Cao Guo wrote in Japanese in his personal social media face book "insulting South Korea’s sovereignty and damaging free trade". Regarding the issue of labor expropriation in World War II, he posted on social media that "those who deny, accuse and distort the facts should be called pro-Japanese (meaning traitors in Korean context)".

　　Under the dilemma, there are different opinions in Korean political circles and public opinion has changed.

　　A commentary in the South China Morning Post on the 7th pointed out that the Moon Jae in administration’s active efforts to improve relations with North Korea have weakened the US-South Korea alliance. North Korea’s recent missile tests have made Moon Jae in’s idea of developing a "peaceful economy" with North Korea to deal with the dispute between Japan and South Korea hopeless. The U.S. Defense Secretary’s proposal to deploy medium-range missiles in Asia may further put South Korea in a security dilemma. There are also differences in South Korean political circles on how to break through the predicament. Conservatives advocate easing Japan to restore the trilateral relations between the United States, Japan and South Korea on the basis of the United States, South Korea and the United States-Japan alliance, while progressives emphasize the need to win the "battle" with Japan.

　　At a time when political circles have not yet reached a consensus, Korean public opinion seems to have undergone subtle changes. Japan’s "West Japan News" reported this detail change. For example, there are more and more calls for "anti-Abe instead of anti-Japan" in Korean media or social media. Banners such as "NO Boycott Japan" that appeared in a large number on the streets of Japan have attracted many criticisms in South Korea, saying that "Japanese tourists are not enemies" and demanding that banners be removed to calmly handle Japan-ROK relations.

　　The Korean media also presented the idea that "government communication should be distinguished from civil opposition". The Korean National Daily introduced the voice of a representative of a Korean citizen group, who said that "conscientious Japanese citizens who oppose Abe’s regime should unite to play a role in Japan". Another male employee in Seoul said, "After stopping business exchanges with South Korea, I saw the disappointment of the local government in Japan with the Japanese government." He said that political and non-governmental exchanges should be separated.

　　According to NHK, the results of a survey of 1,000 people conducted by the Korean poll "Gallup Korea" show that as of August 8, 54% of the people in South Korea answered "doing well" and 35% answered "doing wrong". In response to the question "Which side is more affected by Japanese and Korean enterprises", 57% answered "Korean enterprises" and 22% answered "Japanese enterprises".

　　A commentary in the Central Daily News on August 5 pointed out that Korean nationals will naturally be angry with Japan’s actions. The government should also respect the feelings of the people, but if it deliberately incites anti-Japanese sentiment or acts in an extreme way, it will not benefit the country. The more this time, the more calm we must be. Korea and Japan are "close neighbors" who can’t live without each other. Even if conflicts occasionally break out, the government must formulate corresponding countermeasures for the long-term plan.

　　At the end of this month, it is expected that Japan will take the second round of measures to strengthen export management to South Korea, and Japanese raw material enterprises are also accelerating to take countermeasures. For example, Morita Chemical Industry will start the production of hydrogen fluoride in China in 2019.　

　　Li Jiacheng concluded with The Paper that he hoped Japan and South Korea would exercise restraint and handle it calmly. At present, the economic situation of South Korea and Japan is not optimistic, and the international economic environment in which the two countries are located is not good. On the one hand, they are affected by Sino-US trade frictions, and on the other hand, their domestic economic policies also have their own shortcomings. Weak growth and economic slowdown have become the norm. If the trade disputes between the two countries worsen, it will be even worse.

Break 100 million The aesthetic love in Water Story inspires the audience’s emotional resonance.

1905 movie network news On March 26th, the fantasy love movie, which is being shown all over the country, has exceeded 100 million at the box office in China cinema. Since its release, the film has broken the box office records of many Oscar-winning films, among which the first-day box office was ranked second in the box office list of China District with 21.74 million yuan, and the first-weekend box office of Oscar-winning films in recent years was the highest with 67.5 million yuan. Since its release in North America, the film has been a hit at the box office. At present, the box office in North America has exceeded $62 million, which is the highest-grossing Oscar-winning film in North America in the past five years. At present, the global box office of the film has exceeded $170 million. In March, when many adventure action elements are killing each other, Water Story, as the only movie with the theme of love, is like a clean stream of warmth in the hearts of the audience, and it has also become the best choice for lovers to date.

As the winner of four awards, such as best film and best director, "Tale of Water Shapes" has not only enjoyed a strong box office since its release in China, but its word-of-mouth has also continued to ferment, which has been highly praised by many authoritative media, well-known directors and senior film critics in China. In addition, David and his wife, Zhou Dongyu, Jiang Shuying, Jolin Tsai, Ariel Lin, Emily, Charlie, YIN FANG and many other artists CALL for the film one after another, and the love wave formed by Water Story quickly spread in the circle of friends, Weibo and other social software.

"Tale of Water" can get a bumper harvest in three aspects: word of mouth, box office and Oscar. The most important reason is the romantic story created by director guillermo del toro in a fairy-tale way. The love between Sargam’s Eliza and the mermaid broke the audience’s inertia thinking, but across races, it restored love to its purest taste. Beautiful pictures, beautiful music and superb performances of actors are the elements that sublimate the beauty of love again. On the screen, Eliza and the mermaid embraced and guarded each other from the first contact to the last, and the experience left a deep impression on the audience. For example, Eliza and the mermaid are clasped with their fingers across the container, and there is a picture of Eliza depicting raindrops on the window. The yearning for lovers and longing for love instantly aroused many audiences’ emotional resonance. When the picture of two people communicating with picture books and making love with eggs appeared, many viewers also expressed their envy of this simple but sweeter love routine. When the mermaid finally jumped into the water with Eliza in her arms, many viewers, especially female viewers, were moved to tears at this moment.

Eliza on the screen has no lines, but she accurately presents a girl’s process from first love to passionate love with body language and micro-expression, which is inseparable from sally hawkins’s profound understanding and vivid interpretation of the role. For Eliza’s performance, director Toro once said that this is a film and role specially made for her (sally hawkins), and her temperament is unique. In addition to Eliza, Mermaid has also captivated many audiences. doug jones, his actor, paid more hardships and sacrifices for this. He spent three hours in makeup every time, staring blankly at the fish in his spare time, and finally he was "ashamed" to meet the audience. The whole set of equipment on the mermaid consumed the director Toro’s huge time and effort, and finally showed the audience this wild and elegant mermaid image on the screen.

Full of care and support is also a warm heart of Water Story. In the film, the story of Eliza, Zeldia, a black colleague, and Charles, a gay painter, holding a group to keep warm reflects Toro’s concern for marginalized people. Richard jenkins, the actor of the painter Charles, once summed up his role struggle with Zeldia with such a sentence: "In the United States in the 1960s, if you were an upright white man, it would be a great era". Three characters who were discriminated against by the secular world, Sargam Eliza, black Zeldia and gay Charles, supported their friendship with a rescue activity, and the thrills brought the audience a journey of spiritual transformation. In the film, although Charles did a lot of preparation and psychological construction to cover up his anxiety, the images exposed by nervousness when he drove past the checkpoint also made the audience worry about Eliza. When Eliza and Mermaid flooded the cinema because of playing with water, when Charles stopped the cinema manager to apologize, many viewers also praised him for his kindness. In the whole rescue process, it was Zeldia who gave the greatest support to Eliza, including her behavior of "punching in a seat" for Eliza every day at the beginning of the film, which reflected this powerful girlfriend power. Zeldia’s calmness in her actions has become Eliza’s strongest psychological backing. When the villain Richard bullied Zeldia into telling the whereabouts of the mermaid, her firm attitude and loud reprimand to her husband made the audience feel better.

As a fantasy romantic film, Water Story enhances the charm of love through poetic scenes and beautiful music. The scenes and props in the film are extremely exquisite and retro, ranging from streets and alleys, government agencies, Alisa’s rooms and cinemas to scientific research equipment, household items and clothing and shoes, which deeply restore the characteristics of the 1960s. At the same time, the film music composer Alexander Dupla adopted a lot of music from the 1930s and 1940s. With the change of the lens, the music also flowed, like a clear stream to take the audience in and out of the film. This retro picture is in line with aesthetic music, which also makes the film win the best artistic direction and the best original score in the 90th Oscar, and the audience is like being in a dreamlike journey through.


9 am! AFC executives announced major news： Congratulations to China Football! The fans cheered in unison

China Football: Challenge and Hope

China football has been facing great challenges, especially in the international arena, the performance of China’s national football team has been unsatisfactory. This has aroused widespread concern and reflection, as well as full of expectations for the future of China football. However, the recent meeting between the president of AFC and the president of China Football Association has brought new support and hope to China football.

Commitment of FIFA President

The president of the Asian Football Association recently had an important meeting with the president of the China Football Association, and he said that he would fully support the revitalization of football in China. This commitment has aroused widespread discussion and concern, because the support of the AFC President is regarded as a key step for China football to return to the international stage. This also means that China football will get more resources and opportunities to improve the level of players, strengthen infrastructure construction and promote the all-round development of football.

The Spirit of Football in China

The history of China football is full of tenacity, unyielding, unity and enterprising spirit. Despite the enormous challenges, China football players have been full of determination and courage, and constantly strive to improve their own level. This spirit can be reflected on the court, and it also encourages more young people to devote themselves to the football cause and contribute to the development of football in China.

Badminton Competition in the Asian Games

Besides football, the Asian Games is also a grand gathering of various competitive sports, including badminton. The badminton competition in the last Asian Games attracted top players from all countries, who showed their high-level skills and competitive strength. These competitions also provide a platform for athletes from Asian countries to exchange and learn from each other.

China’s success.

In the badminton competition of the last Asian Games, China performed well and won many gold medals. This not only brought honor to the country, but also filled with hope for the future of badminton in China. The success of China Badminton Team is the pride of China Sports, and it has also inspired more young people to join badminton.

The charm of Asian badminton

Asian badminton competition is not only a grand event of competitive sports, but also an exchange of culture and friendship. Athletes from different countries learn from each other in the competition, and at the same time better understand and appreciate the charm of Asian badminton. This cross-cultural exchange not only promotes friendship, but also helps to promote the development of sports in Asia.

summary

Football in China is facing great challenges, but it is also full of hope. The commitment of the AFC President has provided new support for the revitalization of China football, and the spirit of China football will continue to inspire the younger generation. At the same time, the badminton competition of the Asian Games shows the splendor and diversity of Asian sports, which brings more possibilities for the future of Asian sports. China Football and Asian Badminton are constantly moving forward, contributing to the development of sports.

The opening of Xintai Cherry Festival in 2018 can not only pick cherries but also swim in the sea of flowers.

　　Qilu netTaian May 20 thOn May 20th, the opening ceremony of 2018 China Xintai Cherry Festival and Economic, Trade and Cultural Cooperation and Exchange Conference kicked off in Lianhua Mountain, xintai city. Visitors can not only watch cherry picking, but also swim in a thousand acres of lily sea. This year’s Cherry Festival is jointly organized by Tai ‘an High-tech Zone and xintai city, during which the "Lily Culture and Art Festival" will be held, and the whole activity will last for one and a half months.

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　　The purpose of this cherry festival is "cherry as the medium, lily to welcome guests, culture to set up a stage, and economic and trade singing", and domestic and foreign merchants are invited to gather in Xintai to carry out economic and trade cooperation and exchanges, and promote project signing and industrial docking. Tai ‘an High-tech Zone also arranged for 19 enterprises with special agricultural products to participate in the exhibition, bringing special agricultural products such as potatoes, organic tea, Chinese herbal medicines, wool products and Chinese calcium fruits to the scene, so as to build high-quality and special agricultural products brands on the occasion of the Cherry Festival.

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　　The signing ceremony of the 2018 China Xintai Economic and Trade Cooperation Fair was also held, and a series of activities were held, such as famous agricultural products exhibition, photography exhibition, Luxinpai bonsai exhibition, intangible cultural heritage photo exhibition and excellent project on-site exhibition, xintai city moral model and "good people around" deeds exhibition, etc. Visitors can not only experience Xintai’s profound history and culture in Lianhua Mountain, but also enjoy the beautiful natural scenery. They can also go to Tianbao Town, the origin of "Chinese cherry", and the cherry base in Guli Town to watch and pick.

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　　During the whole cherry festival, the activities were brilliant. Xintai will also hold activities such as "The Second Tiancheng Guanyin Prayer Season", "Top 100 Travel Agencies in Shandong Province Enter Lotus Mountain in Xintai", "Seeing Xintai through the Transformation of Old and New Kinetic Energy", "New Media Walking in beautiful countryside" and "Tasting Red Cherry and Singing New Xintai".

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　　Among them, the biggest highlight is the "Lily Culture and Art Festival" which started on June 16th. At that time, Xintai will rely on the 6,000-acre lily garden of Hui Mei Agriculture and Animal Husbandry Co., Ltd. located in Yangliu Town to hold many activities such as lily beauty food tasting, lily product exhibition, lily calligraphy and painting martial arts exhibition, fragrant lily wedding dress show, and a hundred-year collective wedding. With lily as the introduction, Xintai will build a tourism brand integrating eco-sightseeing, leisure flower viewing and rural tour.

　　Lightning journalist Wang Xun Taian reports.

Wild animals ＂enter the city＂ from time to time, and experts talk about how to live in harmony.

This article was transferred from Xinhua News Agency;
Xinhua News Agency, Shanghai, June 5, news, a group of Asian elephants entered Kunming all the way north, the northeast tiger Wandashan No.1 broke into the village, and raccoons appeared in more than 100 communities in Shanghai … Recently, wild animals have entered human habitats from time to time in many places. What should we do about this? The reporter visited the team of Professor Wang Fang from the School of Life Sciences of Fudan University to explore the management of urban wildlife, and looked for the answer together.
There are many "animal residents" in the city.
In Shanghai, a survey about "animal residents" is going on. There are 12 investigation areas and 300 infrared cameras specially designed for wild animals. With the support of Shanghai Forestry Bureau and other relevant departments, Wang Fang’s team hopes to get a demonstration plan for urban wildlife management through one or two years of follow-up.
"The wildlife in the city is not just as simple as protecting it." Wang Fang’s research found that the number of some wild species in cities increased rapidly and their distribution range was also expanding. Take raccoons as an example. In 2015, raccoons were found in more than 40 communities in Shanghai. By 2020, the number of raccoons in Shanghai will reach more than 150, an increase of more than 2 times.
↑ Photographed in a community in Shanghai. (provided by Wang Fang)
With the increase of "animal residents", the contact and conflict between people and animals have increased accordingly. Research shows that when there are less than two raccoons per hectare, people will hardly feel the existence of raccoons, but when the number exceeds five, it will affect people’s lives. According to the statistics of the team, in 2020, there were about 1,000 complaints about wild animals disturbing people in Shanghai, some of whom were troubled by the excrement and noise of raccoons, while others were frightened by raccoons. In addition to raccoons, citizens are also uneasy about the existence of bats. In 2021, there were complaints about the destruction of gardens by red-bellied squirrels.
At the same time, the habits of raccoons have also changed quietly: from living alone to group activities, from staying up all day and going out all night, from being afraid of people to approaching people actively. "The biggest change is their attitude towards people and the human world." Wang Fang said, "In the past, people ran immediately when they saw them three or four meters away, but if there were behaviors such as active feeding, they would take the initiative to chase people for food, which might disturb the elderly and children."
↑ in the small garden of the city. (provided by Wang Fang)
The change of raccoons in Shanghai is basically consistent with the change trend of wild animals in other cities around the world. For example, Wang Fang said: "For example, the red fox in Europe, the American black bear and raccoon all show the characteristics of rapid urbanization. The changing direction of raccoons is what we can expect, but the speed of change surprises us."
Why do they "leave home for the city"?
Why do wild animals leave their original living environment and enter cities? Wang Fang believes that there are mainly several aspects:
First of all, migration is the instinctive demand of wild animals. No one can confine wild animals to protected areas. The purposes of animal migration include but are not limited to food, water, spouses, avoiding natural enemies and finding better habitats.
"However, it is easy to overlook that when the habitat becomes broken, many animals lose the opportunity and ability to migrate, and it often takes decades to explore and rebuild again. Many species, including Asian elephants, are going through this process. They will try and make mistakes, conflict, and run to places that seem’ should not go’, but these processes are in line with the laws of nature. " Wang Fang said.
Secondly, compared with the wilderness and the urban-rural junction, the urban environment recovers faster. By the end of 2020, the green coverage rate of Shanghai’s built-up areas is as high as 40%. There are not only large areas of forests and wetlands, but also small and beautiful ecological areas such as street gardens and pocket parks. At this time, the city will be like a hot spot, attracting the surrounding animals.
Finally, the urban environment provides shelter for some wild animals. Raccoons, squirrels, weasels and other animals have very flexible lifestyles. They are good at adjusting according to the characteristics of cities. There are no natural enemies in cities. As long as they can adapt to urban life and human beings, they will hardly encounter threats.
↑ Two raccoons are in the city. (provided by Wang Fang)
How to coexist in the collision?
When wild animals enter the city, urban residents need to go through a learning process. From curiosity at the beginning, to dissatisfaction, and then to getting used to it, a new order will be formed between urban residents and wild animals.
Wang Fang believes that the establishment of order is inseparable from the understanding of wild animals and the study of urban management. In the past year, Wang Fang’s team conducted extensive research in Shanghai, and basically grasped the changes of raccoons in the city. In addition to determining the threshold number per hectare, they also established a habitat model to further analyze the mechanism driving the changes of wild animals.
"We found that raccoons don’t need large areas of forests and green spaces, and the two main factors affecting their distribution are shrubs and water sources. They also like small and medium-sized roads. During the day, cars come and go on the roads, and at night they become’ high-speed passages’ for animals. " Zhao Qianqian is a member of Wang Fang’s team. She put collars with positioning functions on five raccoons.
Volunteers discuss the urban wildlife survey together. (provided by Wang Fang)
The diversity of urban wildlife needs to be protected without hindering the normal operation of society. Up to now, local governments and citizens have maintained a great degree of tolerance for wild animals "entering the city", which not only helped the Northeast Tiger who broke into the village to return to Shan Ye, but also suffered economic losses of millions of yuan caused by elephant "sightseeing".
However, it does not rule out taking appropriate intervention measures when necessary. According to Wang Fang, in July, 2020, dozens of raccoons in a community in Shanghai had a group behavior disorder, which caused great interference. Therefore, the first wildlife hunting license was opened in Shanghai, which captured raccoons in the community and safely transferred them to the wild environment.
Wang Fang also said that the best way to solve the problem of wild animals "entering the city" is to protect and restore the living environment of wild animals, preserve the buffer zone of the city, and minimize the direct conflict between wild animals and urban residents.
"Cities are first and foremost places where people live and work. There will never be an optimal plan for urban wildlife management, and conflicts will always exist. No matter how good the system is, it needs continuous adjustment. In this regard, cities such as Shanghai have made a lot of explorations and the experience is extremely precious. " Wang Fang said.
(The original title is "Wild animals enter the city from time to time". How can we live in harmony? 》）
Reporting/feedback

Regarding the epidemic, Zhong Nanshan has 12 latest judgments.

　　At present, the situation of epidemic prevention and control in China continues to improve, and foreign epidemics spread rapidly. "External defense input and internal defense rebound" has become the focus of epidemic prevention and control in China. Can I take off my mask now? How contagious are asymptomatic infected people and relapsing patients? Will pets spread viruses? Recently, Zhong Nanshan, an academician of China Academy of Engineering, responded to the hot issues of epidemic prevention and control.

　　It’s not time to take off the mask yet.

　　Zhong Nanshan:At present, the situation at home and abroad is very different. China has entered the second stage of the epidemic because of its decisive measures, while other major countries are still in the first stage of the outbreak and are still climbing up. This means that the probability of human-to-human transmission is very high, and the number of confirmed cases increases very quickly.Wearing a mask is still an important means of self-protection, but it is not necessary to wear it in areas where the epidemic situation is not serious, places with few people or open spaces.

　　Wuhan has passed the customs, but there is still the next pass.

　　Zhong Nanshan:After the outbreak, the central government took decisive measures to control Wuhan’s urban traffic, and it was very successful to take measures to prevent and treat it in other places. In the history of epidemic prevention and control, this is also a feat. However, there are still two tests: one is how to prevent and control while returning to work, and the other is the "external defense input" barrier.At present, foreign epidemic situation is still at the peak, and some coastal cities in China, which have close communication with foreign countries, are easily "involved", and then some epidemic situations occur.It can be said that the next "pass" of Wuhan is also the "pass" of the whole country, and it needs to pass through various prevention and control measures.

　　3. It is very unlikely that foreign imports will cause a second outbreak in China.

　　Zhong Nanshan:There are actually two questions about whether the overseas epidemic will cause a second outbreak of the domestic epidemic: first, whether the imported cases have spread, and second, whether they will break out in the process of spreading. The risk of transmission of imported cases definitely exists, especially cases with positive nucleic acid test or symptoms of infection, which are highly contagious and will cause virus transmission. At present, the mass prevention and control in China has been sinking into the community, and community residents have a strong sense of self-protection, such as wearing masks and keeping a distance from others. Once someone has symptoms such as fever, he can report or accept diagnosis quickly, and then isolate.On the whole, the risk of community transmission certainly exists, but the probability of the second wave of outbreaks in China is very small.

　　It is too early to talk about the "turning point" of the global epidemic.

　　Zhong Nanshan:Globally, the original "epicenter" of the epidemic was in Europe, especially Spain and Italy, and now it also includes Germany, France and Britain.The biggest problem at present is the United States. In the past week, the number of confirmed cases in the United States has increased at a rate of 10,000 to 20,000 per day. It is too early to predict when the global epidemic will have an "inflection point".It can be said that whether there can be an "inflection point" mainly depends on whether governments can intervene strongly. There are many unpredictable factors in other countries. According to the current situation, I am afraid it will take another two weeks.

　　5. The proportion of asymptomatic infected people in China will not be large.

　　Zhong Nanshan:Asymptomatic infected people do not appear out of thin air, but usually appear in two groups: first, people who have not shown symptoms for the time being but may have been infected in areas with relatively serious epidemics; The other is the close contacts of the confirmed cases, and their proportion is relatively small. Asymptomatic infected people also have two concepts. One is that they have no symptoms at first, but then they will gradually develop into symptoms. Such patients are definitely contagious; The other is that during a long observation, there is no symptom all the time, but the nucleic acid test is positive. We are studying the infectivity of such patients.However, according to the characteristics of Covid-19, once symptoms appear, it is more contagious, so it is correct to isolate asymptomatic infected people for observation.

　　6. Most patients with relapse are not contagious.

　　Zhong Nanshan:Generally speaking, most patients with relapse are not contagious. Most of the so-called multiple positives are fragments of nucleic acid, not the virus itself.We need to pay attention to two situations. The first is whether the patient has a relapse. If the patient produces strong antibodies, he will not be infected again. As for whether patients with relapsing yang will be transmitted to others, it needs specific analysis. Generally speaking, nucleic acid fragments are not contagious. Some scholars have cultivated throat swabs and secretions of patients with relapsing yang, but they have not cultivated viruses. The second situation is that patients have many basic diseases, but their symptoms have improved and they have not fully recovered. These patients cannot rule out infectivity.

　　7. There is not enough evidence of "influenza" in COVID-19.

　　Zhong Nanshan:At present, there is not enough evidence of COVID-19’s "influenza".Unless there is such a rule in virus transmission: its infectivity is still strong, but the mortality rate is getting lower and lower. In this case, it is possible to exist for a long time. We now need to make long-term observation and master sufficient data and cases before we can draw such a view. Under the present circumstances, I don’t think this prediction will come true.

　　8. It is too early to draw conclusions about animal-to-animal transmission.

　　Zhong Nanshan:It remains to be seen whether some animals such as dogs, cats and tigers are positive for nucleic acid detection, which is caused by pollution or infection. Some animals originally carry some viruses, which may not be symptomatic or contagious.It is too early to conclude that Covid-19 in these animals can infect both humans and animals, and both can cause diseases.

　　9. Some effective drugs have been found, but there is no specific drug yet.

　　Zhong Nanshan:Some drugs we are testing now (such as chloroquine phosphate) are definitely effective. We are summarizing them and will announce them soon. There are also some Chinese medicines (such as Lianhua Qingwen), which we have not only done in vitro experiments, but also found in P3 laboratory (the third-level laboratory of biosafety protection) that their antiviral effect is not strong, but their anti-inflammatory performance is outstanding, and the relevant experimental results will be published soon. In addition, there is Xuebijing, a traditional Chinese medicine. Its main components include safflower, salvia miltiorrhiza, radix paeoniae rubra, etc. It is used to promote blood circulation and remove blood stasis, but it is also effective in the treatment of severe patients. We are summarizing the situation of these drugs.

　　10. The vaccine will not be on the market soon, and the vaccination depends on the situation.

　　Zhong Nanshan:Vaccine is very important to really end the epidemic. Now all countries are developing it at the fastest speed, but I don’t think it can be made in three or four months. In addition, according to the experience of fighting SARS, removing the intermediate host can also block the spread of the epidemic. At present, we are not clear about the transmission chain in Covid-19, and it is also important to cut it off after it is clear.Put all your hopes on the vaccine, and all other methods are negative. Moreover, after the vaccine comes out, it is impossible to be perfect at once. The susceptible population can be vaccinated, but it is not necessary for everyone to be vaccinated.

　　11. Group immunization is the most negative practice.

　　Zhong Nanshan:The most negative way to deal with the epidemic is the so-called "group immunity", which was the idea more than 100 years ago.At that time, human beings had no choice but to let the virus infect them, and those who survived the infection naturally got antibodies. I don’t agree to deal with Covid-19 in this way again. In the past 100 years, mankind has made great progress, and there are many ways to prevent it, so there is no need to use natural immunity or group immunity.

　　12. The most worth sharing experience of the "epidemic" in China War is execution.

　　Zhong Nanshan:China War "epidemic" mainly took two measures: first, blocked the outbreak area and blocked the spread; The second is grassroots group defense and group governance. Now there are two core points of prevention and control: one is to keep a distance, and the other is to wear a mask.

　　So,China’s most shareable experience is execution.. The medical level and technical strength of many countries are much higher than that of our country. The reason why we were caught off guard in the face of the epidemic was because we were not prepared mentally and did not take decisive measures, which led to the infection of many front-line medical personnel. Once this line of defense collapses, it is easy to get out of control.

　　(People’s Daily client)

There is only one Tom and Jerry for the Lantern Festival, but after the Spring Festival, Li Huanying still supports the market.

The public may have perceived that this year’s Spring Festival stalls are longer than in previous years.

　

Compared with the end of the Spring Festival in previous years, the film market will be taken over by imported blockbusters around the Lantern Festival. This year’s Lantern Festival and even the beginning of March, the box office market is still dominated by Hi, Mom (hereinafter referred to as "Li Huanying") and Detective Chinatown 3 (hereinafter referred to as "Tang Tan 3").

Chinese box office data show that on the Lantern Festival in 2021, the box office market reached 262 million, up 43% from the previous month, and the performance increased by about 20% compared with the Lantern Festival in 2019. However, the market still maintains the pattern of Spring Festival stalls. Li Huanying contributed 44.6% of the box office by itself, followed by Tang Tan 3, but the box office accounted for only 16.52%.

　

It is worth noting that five movies were released on the Lantern Festival, but only one movie with a large volume, Warner Bros. classic animation IP "Cat and Mouse" movie. The film won 28.86 million box office on the day of its release, and was quickly overtaken by the old Spring Festival film Crowd.

　

As of the time of writing (around 19: 00 on February 27th), the proportion of film arrangement is about 10%, which is far from Li Huanying, Tang Tan 3 and other old films in terms of box office volume and film arrangement space.

　

Obviously, judging from the volume of films released at the Lantern Festival this year, the film market does not attach importance to this festival. The fifteenth day of the first month, as the end of the Spring Festival, is hidden in the long tail heat of the Spring Festival file.For a long time, the box office market has been very vague about the concept of "Yuan Xiao dang". When the movie market is busy, it can barely be regarded as a schedule, and when the market is cold, it is an ordinary working day/weekend.

　

This year’s Lantern Festival is an ordinary Saturday. It should be noted that this disappearing Yuan Xiao file in 2021 is not only the indifference of a small festival, but also seems to indicate the loss of the entire imported film market.

The coldest Lantern Festival in history?What we should really worry about is the cold period after the Spring Festival.

The film market after the Spring Festival stalls has experienced a long cold period, but this year’s cold period of the Spring Festival stalls is even more withered than in previous years.

　

According to the data of Cat’s Eye Professional Edition, after 7 movies were released during the Spring Festival, 9 other movies were welcomed in the movie market in February, but most of them were domestic films for one-day trips. Among the five films released in the Lantern Festival, except for the imported cartoon Tom and Jerry, which caused a splash in the market because of IP awareness, no one cares about other films such as Suburban Birds’s "Agent Mommy". In the two days after the Lantern Festival, no new films were released in the market, and a batch of old films continued to harvest the market during the Spring Festival.

This situation is somewhat miserable.Throughout the Lantern Festival in the past five years (2015 -2019), although there is almost no schedule effect on this festival, it has never been taken seriously by the box office market. However, the Lantern Festival occasionally coincides with the weekend or is close to the Valentine’s Day file, which is often the end of the "monopoly" of Spring Festival movies and the beginning of new films entering the movie market.

In fact, the Lantern Festival is not a regular schedule, and a fixed wave of new films has not yet formed in the market. For example, the Lantern Festival in 2016 falls on Monday, which is a normal working day, and there is no public holiday. There are no new films released this year, even before and after the Lantern Festival.But when the festival is in the right time, it will have a small-scale scheduling effect.

　

For example, the Lantern Festival in 2018 falls on a Friday, and eight new films are released on the day of the festival. Among them, imported films such as Peter Rabbit and Uncle Monkey of Little Loli in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri are released, officially announcing that the import market has begun to exert its strength. Since then, the Oscar season and popular IP blockbusters in the imported market will enter the market one after another.

The Lantern Festival in 2019 is also a working day, but the Hollywood blockbuster Alita: Fighting Angel was released this weekend, which set off the first wave of imported movies in China.

　

It can be vaguely felt that although the Lantern Festival has a very weak sense of existence in the box office market, it seems to have a subtle node significance for the imported film market.It has virtually become a signal to remind the market that the domestic blockbusters in the Spring Festival stalls are ebbing, the cold season is coming, and imported films are coming into the market.

　

This year’s Lantern Festival should have the same effect, but under the influence of the epidemic black swan, the overseas film market has not recovered, and the imported film market has withered unprecedentedly. Only one imported IP film was released in Tom and Jerry during the Lantern Festival. As a big animated film of MGM’s classic comedy, the film broke away from the original 2D animation and was completely produced by CG technology combined with real-life interpretation.

For the domestic audience, Tom and Jerry has a strong childhood color. Tom, the stupid cat who can never catch the mouse, and Jerry, the clever and lovely mouse, are one of the most vivid and interesting memories of childhood. In overseas markets, this animated short film has reached hundreds of episodes, won seven Oscar animated short film awards, and is popular all over the world. It is one of the cutest and humorous symbols in the global pop culture market from 1940s to 1970s. From MGM to Warner Bros., "Cat and Mouse" is also one of the most classic animation images in animation history.

　

However, the situation of the big movie Cat and Mouse is not optimistic.Cat and Mouse was originally planned to be shown in cinemas. However, under the influence of the epidemic, the release date of the film was revised several times in overseas markets, and finally it landed on HBO MAX, a streaming media of Warner Bros., in the Lantern Festival, while the cinema was released simultaneously in the domestic market.

　

As far as the domestic box office market is concerned, the release performance of Cat and Mouse is not as good as expected. From childhood feelings to big movies, movies have not played the ideal effect of heat fermentation and box office conversion.

　

This is a market reason.In the cold period after the Spring Festival, the market is still dominated by domestic films in the Spring Festival, and it is difficult for imported films to break through. However, the animated films like Tom and Jerry, although blessed by IP, are limited by the theme, and the box office space is more limited.

　

On the other hand, it is the quality of the film itself.Tom and jerry Douban scored 5.7, and the animation fans were not satisfied with the big movie, "Tom and Jerry content was 20%" and "giggle without thinking, and then the real protagonist was not Tom and Jerry’s movie".

　

There is no blockbuster in March, how long can the temperature of the Spring Festival stall last?

　

February is drawing to a close, and what really worries people is the movie market in March.

　

After imported films began to make up for the cold period of the Spring Festival in 2018, the film market from 2018 to March 2019 either gave way to Hollywood IP blockbusters, or mainly imported films, supplemented by small and medium-cost domestic films.

　

Take 2019 as an example. In March this year, 39 films were released, including 14 imported films. At the beginning of the import market, there are the animated IP movie Master Dragon Trainer 3 of Universal Pictures, Captain Surprise of Marvel Comics’s super English movie, the theatrical version of Natsume Friends’ Account, the Japanese IP animation My Hero Academy in the middle of the month, and The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part of Bohemian Rhapsody in the second half of the year. On the domestic market, it is the topic movie "The Sad Story" and the literary word-of-mouth movie "Over the Spring".

In March 2019, the monthly box office reached 4.16 billion, and imported films were the main force in the box office market.

　

On the other hand, this year, only 20 films have been announced in the film market, of which only one Disney animated film "The Legend of Searching for Dragons" is a relatively large imported film. On the domestic market, there are small-budget movies such as Legal Companion and Love Picture Book in Beijing, as well as comedy movies such as Days Never Fall Hotel that have been postponed several times before.

　

The shortage has been visible to the naked eye, which makes the box office prospect in March unpredictable.In the previous two years, the task of the box office market in March did not accidentally fall on imported films, but the era of domestic box office supported by imported films has passed. In March 2018, except for the last Ready Player One, other imported films did not perform as expected. In 2019, "Alita: Fighting Angel" started the "box office defense war" after the Spring Festival in advance, but the market still showed a downward trend. The impact of the epidemic in 2020 has made the box office weight of domestic films rise rapidly.

　

At present, the box office market is still in the afterglow of the Spring Festival, and the cumulative box office of Li Huanying has exceeded 4.7 billion yuan, and the cumulative box office of Tang Tan 3 has exceeded 4.2 billion yuan. The box office market also accommodates two explosive movies exceeding 4 billion yuan, and the biggest heat in the Spring Festival market has been released. And "Crowd" A Writer’s Odyssey and other mid-waist movies have more room to play the long tail effect because there are no new films in the market, but it is unlikely that the movies can release the second wave of dividends.

　

The film market in 2021 is still special, and now we need to think about the problem. When the residual temperature of the Spring Festival stalls dissipates and the import market is missing, how can the film market tap a new box office market under this new situation?

Online English： ＂Winter Swimming＂ for one year, how to go ashore？

Text | Blue Whale Education Zhou Jifeng

2019 seems to be a nodal year for online English.

It has been three years since the first online English company went public this year, and six years since the rise of online English.

In 2013, the 4G license was officially released. Since then, online mobile Internet has broadened more usage scenarios, and online English has begun to rise.

In six years, capital rushed in with money. One after another, the financing news, the valuation is higher than the next round, grabbing teachers, students and markets, and the whole industry is booming.

ITutorGroup (vipabc in those days) "got up early to catch up with the late episode", and started to do online in 2004, and it took 13 years for the whole industry to really rise. Huang Jiajia, CEO of 51 Talk, stopped a car in the street of Peking University campus and persuaded Xu Xiaoping to get angel round financing, which opened the way to teach adult English online.

When rushing towards online adult English, I found that the adult English pit was far away. Online children’s English track is the gold mine to be tapped. Despite the "burning money", the growth rate is amazing. VIPKID has set off the banner of 1V1 North American foreign teachers and became a unicorn in three years. The legendary customer acquisition cost is as high as 8,000-10,000 yuan, which has attracted the attention of the whole market.

"Online 1-to-1 scale is not economical, only small classes can balance the cost and delivery", "Double-qualified courses may be the right way" … Everyone is crossing the river by feeling the stones, and many people think that their own model can successfully save the online English track.

What new changes have taken place in the online foreign teacher market after welcoming the winter of education capital and bidding farewell to the crazy development of the past? After the tide of capital recedes, who is swimming naked?

Money is harder to get than in previous years, and some "friends" have fallen behind.

Winter has indeed come.

Compared with previous years, the investment and financing situation of online English has been greatly reduced. Except for going public or being merged, there are only 14 or 15 companies that have obtained financing this year-money is more difficult to get than before. In the past few years, online English has been heated up, and the valuation is high. In 2019, the capital that wants to enter the market is also more cautious. The fever of hot money has gone down, and it has become a consensus to live.

The most striking thing about online English this year is the E-round financing of VIPKID, which was led by Tencent. However, this financing is also quite bumpy, and news of divestment has been reported several times; There is almost no large amount of investment after the D round, and most of them are early financing of some start-ups such as Pre-A round and A round.

This year, online English companies have also "landed", and the seeds sown in 2013 should be harvested six years later. The online English track has opened the road to asset certification, and PE/VC have also ushered in the opportunity to quit. For example, Da Da English, which had previously competed with VIPKID, came to another fork in the road. The eye check shows that the actual controller has become Zhang Bangxin.

(Equity information of Tianyan Chadada English)

IPO is another model. From the situation in 2019, this exit road is not smooth, and several companies that have reported IPO news have no follow-up. ITutorGroup was eventually invested by Ping An and incorporated into its ecosystem.

In the fierce competition, online English market resources and traffic gradually concentrate on the head. A number of relatively mature players have emerged, such as VIPKID, 51Talk, iTutorGroup and so on.

Of course, there are also many friends who have fallen behind. You don’t run fast at first, but you can win in the end; And overtaking in corners may not necessarily win.

In May 2018, today’s headlines entered the online one-on-one track, and gogokid was launched in a low-key manner. Its official website shows that it provides one-to-one courses for children aged 4-12, which are purely North American teachers and foreign teachers. Gogokid refers to VIPKID in both mode and curriculum system. However, a year later, gogokid did not seem to exert too much force on the recognized traffic advantage. On the contrary, there were frequent internal changes, and layoffs broke out in April this year.

Under the cold winter of educational capital, no one can do it once and for all.

Three major changes in online English industry

The online English track of "Winter Swimming" has to survive in change.

After a year’s observation, Blue Whale Education found several major changes in the online English industry:

First, with the continuous verification of the market model, online adult English has been fleeing, but junior English has begun to rise; Second, the market sinking is accelerating, and the third, fourth and fifth tier cities have become new battlefields; Third, the mode discussion is no longer, and each family practices internal strength to improve operational efficiency.

1. Online adult English is constantly fleeing, and junior English is beginning to rise.

According to the statistics of Blue Whale Education, there is no adult English company among more than a dozen companies that received financing in 2019. In fact, several institutions of all in Adult English were all transformed into children’s English.

Under the strong man’s broken wrist, Companion English got the C round of financing. After 51Talk comprehensively transformed children’s English, the loss was shrinking.

Relying on the fluency of "AI+ Education" listing, the stock price has been falling all the way. In the latest quarterly financial report, it is fluent that the loss has doubled to 210 million yuan, and the growth of paying users has almost stagnated.

The reason is that the growth rate of adult language training market is far behind that of children’s English. Adults have a strong purpose in learning language, short learning cycle, short online immersion time, fragmented preferences and diversified learning needs, which determine that their ability to renew fees and rigid needs are far less than those of teenagers.

In adult language training, the participants showed a rapid unilateral decline, from 174,000 in 2013 to 66,000 in 2019, with an average annual decline of 15%.

The online adult English track is constantly fleeing. At the same time, among the nearly ten financing events this year, there are still three early financing events, all of which are online enlightenment English.

In other words, the opportunity of online English is still there.

Even leading players like VIPKID have a very limited share. The field of education and training is different from other fields, and there is no winner. However, the highland of online 1V1 high-end market has been occupied, and enterprises need to provide sufficiently differentiated products and services to gain a firm foothold.

Early childhood enlightens English as a game breaker. Children’s English learning in China tends to be younger. The average age of students in first-tier cities is about 6 years old, and the average age of students in second-tier cities is 6.5 years old. More and more parents begin to think about English education before their children are 3 years old.

Young children don’t need live classes, which makes the guest unit price low and the running light. Parents don’t need to spend a lot of energy and cost to think about whether to buy courses or not. Therefore, the intensity of marketing is relatively much smaller, and the cost of marketing and customer acquisition is low. For example, after the first month of the online paid course, the Enlightenment English is said to have achieved profit.

2. Sinking the market and expanding at the right time.

If the hottest word in 2019 is "sinking", the development of Pinduoduo shows people the power beyond the Five Rings. In the case of saturation of first-tier cities, various families have targeted fourth-and fifth-tier cities, and the education industry is no exception.

In the first-tier cities such as Beijing, the participation rate has reached more than 70% a long time ago, while the participation rate in second-and third-tier cities is only over 10%. The penetration rate of online education in non-first-tier cities is not high, less than 10%-a vast world with great potential.

Guangzheng Hang Seng pointed out in the research report that the current overall pattern of first-tier cities is indeed in a relatively stable state, but from the perspective of the entire online children’s English market, the penetration rate is rapidly increasing, and the sinking market space is still expanding. The shortage of offline training resources in third-tier and lower-tier cities and the change of users’ learning style bring historic opportunities to online mode.

Avoid high customer acquisition costs in first-and second-tier cities and avoid competition with head enterprises. For example, 51Talk, which decided to turn the car around to speed up the sinking last year, achieved breakeven in its 1V1 business to a certain extent; For example, acaso, which has been aiming at third-and fourth-tier cities, successfully won the C+ round of financing this year.

Even start-ups are aware of the importance of sinking. For example, Bobby English, who just finished financing this year, mainly focuses on sinking, and the main purpose of financing is to expand the sinking market and improve the curriculum system.

In the future, sinking is still on the road.

3. It doesn’t matter the mode, but the operational efficiency is the key.

2019 is a year of ups and downs for the education industry, and the mode of online education has also become the focus of discussion in the industry.

One-to-one courses can teach students in accordance with their aptitude and strengthen listening, speaking and interest quality. In addition to the interaction between students and teachers, small class increases the interaction between students and is more suitable for improving reading and writing ability and thinking training. Large classes need to be equipped with top teachers, suitable for learning vocabulary, grammar and basic knowledge. AI is the most intelligent and efficient way, but it is biased towards practice and repetitive learning.

Which mode is the most suitable? All sides are arguing. Live classes, recording and broadcasting classes, dual-teacher courses, and AI assistance seem to be defining online education.

Looking at the enterprises that can survive in 2019, it seems that the debate about which existing model has been reduced. They are all studying how to standardize teaching, how to personalize teaching, how to refine services, and begin to pay attention to profit model and cost structure. Previously, the online 1-to-1 model of VIPKID was once rumored that "the cost of each customer acquisition is as high as 8,000-10,000 yuan", but its founder Mi Wenjuan recently said in an open dialogue that the average cost of a single customer acquisition of the company is now 4,000 yuan.

The essence behind the high cost of obtaining customers is the promotion of capital, and everyone wants to quickly produce a "behemoth", and one is the only one. Under the mode of burning money, the retention rate, conversion rate and renewal rate of institutions are low, and the cost of obtaining customers is high.

Nowadays, the education capital is in the cold winter, and the pure To VC model is difficult to last long. Regardless of one-on-one, personalization, large class and middle class, parents’ expectations should be achieved in the end; Secondly, refined management; Finally, personalized service, the ratio of tutors and lecturers, etc., these factors have the ultimate influence and help to Laxin and renew customers.

I would say autumn day is much better than spring morn

Autumn is the unfinished summer, the winter without snow, the dead leaves of phoenix tree, the occasional rain, and the Luan tree described by Shi Tiesheng. The ancients all said that "autumn is sad and lonely since ancient times", but I agree with "I say autumn is better than spring". Camus said that "autumn is the second spring, at this time, every leaf is a flower", and Zhang Xiuya said in Autumn Essays that "autumn is a beautiful myth, full of imagination and more colorful".
Qiu, how to describe it? Spring is full of vitality for the recovery of all things, summer is full of pink and willow green, and winter is covered with snow. And autumn, what it has, is just the sadness of "I have come three thousand miles away. Sad now with autumn" and the depression of "the old road is thin and the west wind is thin". But it is this sadness and depression that makes people fall in love with it unconsciously, and express their feelings and sentiments from its sadness and depression.
The lingering autumn rain has caused literati and poets to sigh in the rain, causing long-lasting worries. Autumn is Liu Yong’s "cold and mournful, late for the pavilion, and the shower begins to rest", Du Mu’s "silver candle Qiu Guang cold painting screen, light Luo small fan flapping fireflies" and Cao Pi’s "the autumn wind is bleak and the weather is cool, and the vegetation is shaken and exposed as frost".
Autumn scenery is deep, unlike the vitality of spring, but autumn scenery is more deep and restrained. In autumn, in the fields, golden rice ripens; Orchard, fruitful, is the fruit of hard work of fruit farmers; In the forest, the autumn leaves are fluttering, like a thin cover on the path, and they rustle when stepped on; By the road, the Luan tree written by Shi Tiesheng blooms, which is a wonderful, shocking and brilliant life. Autumn scenery is Li Bai’s "old phoenix tree with autumn colors" and Du Fu’s "sit on mulberry wine and branch chrysanthemums".
Autumn is sad, unlike summer’s warm feelings. Autumn is a day of parting, full of feelings of parting. Sadness in autumn is "I don’t know whose home Qiu Si belongs to", "the autumn wildgeese have a long wind for escort", "Seeing the autumn wind in Luoyang City, I am eager for a writer’s book", "and the autumn wind is blowing my heart, for ever and ever toward the Jade Pass", and "Whoever sends a brocade book in the cloud, when the geese return, the moon is full of the West Building". Autumn is synonymous with sadness and a prelude to reunion. People always think about the sadness brought by parting, but they never think about cherishing it when they meet again. Don’t grieve for autumn any more. We should look forward to it. We look forward to the winter after autumn, when it is "a thousand miles frozen and Wan Li snows", the spring when the grass grows and the orioles fly in February, and the summer when the lotus flowers reflect the sun.
In autumn, riding with the breeze is casual and brilliant. You can feel the time flowing under the ginkgo tree, watch the golden sunset in on the boulevard, and the crickets brush in the distance. At this time, you can still reminisce about the summer that has not gone far, and you can also fantasize about the coming winter.
Autumn wind opens the door of autumn with residual heat, blows yellow leaves, blows off leaves, and plays the role of life.
One o’clock really can’t sleep.
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